Researchers accurate overestimates with ‘hot model’ climate predictions of rising temperatures in China

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 Researchers accurate overestimates with ‘hot model’ climate predictions of rising temperatures in China


Changes in temperature sensitivity and temperature extremes in the vicinity of extreme hot climates have been widely observed. A subset of CMIP6 climate models, called "warm models," projected more warming due to greenhouse gases.

The mean and extreme warming over China related to global surface air temperature (GSAT) warming. Credit: Geophysical Research Letters (2023).

However, researchers at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP) of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) and the Pacific Northwest National Lab in the U.S. They found that the "warmer" climate model was overstating the warming of China. They propose a new way to fix this problem, can change the climate and mitigation strategies.

They advanced an effective emergency prevention device in steps. First, they adjusted projections of destiny warming using latest worldwide warming. Next, they adjusted the forecast affects the usage of local floor warming to account for nearby comments.

The results showed that the future warming of temperature and extreme temperature, locked in this way, is 1.29 ° C and 1.20 ° C less than the uncooked estimates for stopping in the 21st century under the condition of excessive discharge. Approximate type 1/2 uncertainty is reduced after disruption. In addition, compared to the unheated projections, 78% of the land area and 85% of the population will experience extreme heat. 

In addition to its implications for China, the 2-step constraint approach included in this case addresses a common issue in CMIP6 climate projections, providing a corrective mechanism. Viewing is probably of great importance and there is a very important task to reorganize how the world community responds to the inconsistency of CMIP6 and today's consensus expectations.


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